CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 6 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · SEC · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–433%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
19.8
Market margin MAE
17.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Auburn @ GeorgiaFinal 13–31
Model
pred Georgia 16.0 · actual Georgia 18
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 3.0 · closer
UCF @ FloridaFinal 13–24
Model
pred UCF 3.3 · actual Florida 11
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Missouri @ Texas A&MFinal 10–41
Model
pred Missouri 6.2 · actual Texas A&M 31
winner Missouri ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.2 · mkt 28.5 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ ArkansasFinal 14–19
Model
pred Tennessee 9.0 · actual Arkansas 5
winner Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 19.0 · closer
Ole Miss @ South CarolinaFinal 27–3
Model
pred Ole Miss 9.7 · actual Ole Miss 24
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Alabama @ VanderbiltFinal 35–40
Model
pred Alabama 32.1 · actual Vanderbilt 5
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -23.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.1 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.