CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 4 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · SEC · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–190%
ATS vs close
2–820%
Model margin MAE
13.8
Market margin MAE
10.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UL Monroe @ TexasFinal 3–51
Model
pred Texas 36.7 · actual Texas 48
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +43.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ Ole MissFinal 13–52
Model
pred Ole Miss 30.5 · actual Ole Miss 39
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +35.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ Texas A&MFinal 20–26
Model
pred Texas A&M 27.9 · actual Texas A&M 6
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.9 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ South CarolinaFinal 7–50
Model
pred South Carolina 27.1 · actual South Carolina 43
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina -25.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Vanderbilt @ MissouriFinal 27–30
Model
pred Missouri 26.5 · actual Missouri 3
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
UCLA @ LSUFinal 17–34
Model
pred LSU 20.8 · actual LSU 17
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Ohio @ KentuckyFinal 6–41
Model
pred Kentucky 19.0 · actual Kentucky 35
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.0 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas @ AuburnFinal 24–14
Model
pred Auburn 9.0 · actual Arkansas 10
winner Auburn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Florida @ Mississippi StateFinal 45–28
Model
pred Florida 3.9 · actual Florida 17
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ OklahomaFinal 25–15
Model
pred Tennessee 4.9 · actual Tennessee 10
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.