CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · SEC · 13 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
12–192%
ATS vs close
9–469%
Model margin MAE
12.2
Market margin MAE
13.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ TennesseeFinal 0–71
Model
pred Tennessee 48.9 · actual Tennessee 71
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +49.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.1 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
UTSA @ TexasFinal 7–56
Model
pred Texas 30.4 · actual Texas 49
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +35.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Boston College @ MissouriFinal 21–27
Model
pred Missouri 27.3 · actual Missouri 6
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ AuburnFinal 19–45
Model
pred Auburn 26.9 · actual Auburn 26
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Tulane @ OklahomaFinal 19–34
Model
pred Oklahoma 23.2 · actual Oklahoma 15
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
UAB @ ArkansasFinal 27–37
Model
pred Arkansas 12.6 · actual Arkansas 10
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 13.5 · closer
LSU @ South CarolinaFinal 36–33
Model
pred LSU 2.1 · actual LSU 3
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Texas A&M @ FloridaFinal 33–20
Model
pred Texas A&M 4.1 · actual Texas A&M 13
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Vanderbilt @ Georgia StateFinal 32–36
Model
pred Vanderbilt 5.5 · actual Georgia State 4
winner Vanderbilt ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Toledo @ Mississippi StateFinal 41–17
Model
pred Toledo 7.8 · actual Toledo 24
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.2 · mkt 34.5 · closer
Alabama @ WisconsinFinal 42–10
Model
pred Alabama 19.4 · actual Alabama 32
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ Wake ForestFinal 40–6
Model
pred Ole Miss 21.3 · actual Ole Miss 34
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Georgia @ KentuckyFinal 13–12
Model
pred Georgia 24.7 · actual Georgia 1
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -22.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.7 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.