CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 14 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · SEC · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–190%
ATS vs close
5–550%
Model margin MAE
10.8
Market margin MAE
9.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Mississippi State @ Ole MissFinal 14–26
Model
pred Ole Miss 17.6 · actual Ole Miss 12
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +26.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Auburn @ AlabamaFinal 14–28
Model
pred Alabama 15.8 · actual Alabama 14
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 3.0 · closer
South Carolina @ ClemsonFinal 17–14
Model
pred Clemson 15.2 · actual South Carolina 3
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ GeorgiaFinal 42–44
Model
pred Georgia 15.0 · actual Georgia 2
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Arkansas @ MissouriFinal 21–28
Model
pred Missouri 12.6 · actual Missouri 7
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Oklahoma @ LSUFinal 17–37
Model
pred LSU 4.9 · actual LSU 20
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Louisville @ KentuckyFinal 41–14
Model
pred Louisville 0.6 · actual Louisville 27
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.4 · mkt 23.0 · mkt closer
Texas @ Texas A&MFinal 17–7
Model
pred Texas 4.1 · actual Texas 10
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Florida @ Florida StateFinal 31–11
Model
pred Florida 7.1 · actual Florida 20
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ VanderbiltFinal 36–23
Model
pred Tennessee 16.2 · actual Tennessee 13
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 3.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.