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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 13 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · SEC · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–367%
ATS vs close
3–633%
Model margin MAE
12.0
Market margin MAE
10.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ GeorgiaFinal 21–59
Model
pred Georgia 43.0 · actual Georgia 38
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -42.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ TennesseeFinal 0–56
Model
pred Tennessee 39.7 · actual Tennessee 56
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +41.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ LSUFinal 17–24
Model
pred LSU 21.3 · actual LSU 7
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ TexasFinal 14–31
Model
pred Texas 20.0 · actual Texas 17
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ ArkansasFinal 14–35
Model
pred Arkansas 15.3 · actual Arkansas 21
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Texas A&M @ AuburnFinal 41–43
Model
pred Texas A&M 3.7 · actual Auburn 2
winner Texas A&M ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Alabama @ OklahomaFinal 3–24
Model
pred Alabama 10.5 · actual Oklahoma 21
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 31.5 · mkt 35.0 · closer
Missouri @ Mississippi StateFinal 39–20
Model
pred Missouri 14.6 · actual Missouri 19
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ FloridaFinal 17–24
Model
pred Ole Miss 15.5 · actual Florida 7
winner Ole Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.