CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 12 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · SEC · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
4–267%
Model margin MAE
7.9
Market margin MAE
7.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UL Monroe @ AuburnFinal 14–48
Model
pred Auburn 30.4 · actual Auburn 34
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 9.5 · closer
New Mexico State @ Texas A&MFinal 3–38
Model
pred Texas A&M 29.9 · actual Texas A&M 35
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +38.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Missouri @ South CarolinaFinal 30–34
Model
pred South Carolina 5.7 · actual South Carolina 4
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Tennessee @ GeorgiaFinal 17–31
Model
pred Georgia 1.0 · actual Georgia 14
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
LSU @ FloridaFinal 16–27
Model
pred LSU 1.1 · actual Florida 11
winner LSU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Texas @ ArkansasFinal 20–10
Model
pred Texas 21.9 · actual Texas 10
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.