CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 11 backtest · SEC · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–0100%
ATS vs close
5–183%
Model margin MAE
10.0
Market margin MAE
14.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida @ TexasFinal 17–49
Model
pred Texas 20.1 · actual Texas 32
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +23.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ TennesseeFinal 14–33
Model
pred Tennessee 11.6 · actual Tennessee 19
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Georgia @ Ole MissFinal 10–28
Model
pred Ole Miss 8.3 · actual Ole Miss 18
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 20.0 · closer
Oklahoma @ MissouriFinal 23–30
Model
pred Missouri 7.3 · actual Missouri 7
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Alabama @ LSUFinal 42–13
Model
pred Alabama 8.9 · actual Alabama 29
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.1 · mkt 26.5 · closer
South Carolina @ VanderbiltFinal 28–7
Model
pred South Carolina 10.1 · actual South Carolina 21
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina -6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 15.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.