CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · SEC · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–460%
ATS vs close
4–640%
Model margin MAE
16.6
Market margin MAE
15.9
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Temple @ OklahomaFinal 3–51
Model
pred Oklahoma 39.3 · actual Oklahoma 48
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +43.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ TexasFinal 0–52
Model
pred Texas 38.4 · actual Texas 52
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -35.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Western Kentucky @ AlabamaFinal 0–63
Model
pred Alabama 35.2 · actual Alabama 63
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -34.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.8 · mkt 29.0 · closer
Southern Miss @ KentuckyFinal 0–31
Model
pred Kentucky 18.3 · actual Kentucky 31
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ South CarolinaFinal 19–23
Model
pred South Carolina 15.0 · actual South Carolina 4
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Clemson @ GeorgiaFinal 3–34
Model
pred Georgia 8.1 · actual Georgia 31
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.9 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
USC @ LSUFinal 27–20
Model
pred LSU 5.8 · actual USC 7
winner LSU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Miami @ FloridaFinal 41–17
Model
pred Florida 1.4 · actual Miami 24
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.4 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ Texas A&MFinal 23–13
Model
pred Texas A&M 0.5 · actual Notre Dame 10
winner Texas A&M ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Virginia Tech @ VanderbiltFinal 27–34
Model
pred Virginia Tech 13.8 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.8 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.