CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 9 · 4 games
Oregon State @ Fresno StateFresno State 74%
Model
Fresno State -9.1 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Oregon State 22.8 · Fresno State 31.8
Total
proj 54.6
Colorado State @ Utah StateUtah State 73%
Model
Utah State -8.7 · mkt Utah State —
proj Colorado State 24.1 · Utah State 32.8
Total
proj 56.9
Texas State @ Boise StateBoise State 70%
Model
Boise State -7.3 · mkt Boise State —
proj Texas State 23.1 · Boise State 30.4
Total
proj 53.5
Washington State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 55%
Model
San Diego State -1.6 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Washington State 26.2 · San Diego State 27.9
Total
proj 54.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.