CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 8 · 3 games
Utah State @ Texas StateTexas State 71%
Model
Texas State -8.0 · mkt Texas State —
proj Utah State 22.7 · Texas State 30.7
Total
proj 53.4
Boise State @ Washington StateWashington State 63%
Model
Washington State -4.8 · mkt Washington State —
proj Boise State 22.3 · Washington State 27.1
Total
proj 49.5
San Diego State @ Colorado StateSan Diego State 72%
Model
San Diego State -8.1 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 33.4 · Colorado State 25.2
Total
proj 58.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.