CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 7 · 3 games
Colorado State @ Texas StateTexas State 78%
Model
Texas State -10.8 · mkt Texas State —
proj Colorado State 22.4 · Texas State 33.2
Total
proj 55.7
Fresno State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 67%
Model
San Diego State -6.3 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Fresno State 23.9 · San Diego State 30.2
Total
proj 54.1
Washington State @ Oregon StateWashington State 82%
Model
Washington State -13.0 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 31.1 · Oregon State 18.1
Total
proj 49.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.