CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 5 · 4 games
Utah State @ Boise StateBoise State 83%
Model
Boise State -13.7 · mkt Boise State —
proj Utah State 20.3 · Boise State 34.0
Total
proj 54.4
Fresno State @ Washington StateWashington State 69%
Model
Washington State -6.9 · mkt Washington State —
proj Fresno State 25.1 · Washington State 32.0
Total
proj 57.1
Texas State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 60%
Model
San Diego State -3.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Texas State 23.7 · San Diego State 27.4
Total
proj 51.1
Oregon State @ Colorado StateColorado State 57%
Model
Colorado State -2.6 · mkt Colorado State —
proj Oregon State 25.1 · Colorado State 27.7
Total
proj 52.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.