CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 4 · 7 games
Colorado State @ UTSAUTSA 86%
Model
UTSA -15.6 · mkt UTSA —
proj Colorado State 18.7 · UTSA 34.3
Total
proj 53.1
Rice @ Fresno StateFresno State 85%
Model
Fresno State -14.8 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Rice 19.3 · Fresno State 34.0
Total
proj 53.3
San Diego State @ ToledoToledo 65%
Model
Toledo -5.5 · mkt Toledo —
proj San Diego State 23.5 · Toledo 29.0
Total
proj 52.5
Troy @ Utah StateUtah State 65%
Model
Utah State -5.4 · mkt Utah State —
proj Troy 27.3 · Utah State 32.7
Total
proj 60.0
Boise State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 60%
Model
Western Michigan -3.7 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Boise State 21.9 · Western Michigan 25.6
Total
proj 47.5
Arizona @ Washington StateArizona 56%
Model
Arizona -2.1 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 28.0 · Washington State 25.9
Total
proj 53.8
Oregon State @ UTEPOregon State 64%
Model
Oregon State -5.1 · mkt Oregon State —
proj Oregon State 32.9 · UTEP 27.8
Total
proj 60.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.