CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 3 · 5 games
James Madison @ San Diego StateJames Madison 52%
Model
James Madison -0.8 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 25.4 · San Diego State 24.6
Total
proj 50.0
North Texas @ Texas StateNorth Texas 55%
Model
North Texas -1.9 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 26.8 · Texas State 25.0
Total
proj 51.8
Fresno State @ San José StateFresno State 67%
Model
Fresno State -6.1 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Fresno State 33.5 · San José State 27.4
Total
proj 60.8
BYU @ Colorado StateBYU 94%
Model
BYU -22.5 · mkt BYU —
proj BYU 41.0 · Colorado State 18.5
Total
proj 59.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.