CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 12 · 4 games
Colorado State @ Fresno StateFresno State 81%
Model
Fresno State -12.7 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Colorado State 21.1 · Fresno State 33.8
Total
proj 55.0
San Diego State @ Boise StateBoise State 55%
Model
Boise State -1.6 · mkt Boise State —
proj San Diego State 25.9 · Boise State 27.6
Total
proj 53.5
Washington State @ Texas StateTexas State 54%
Model
Texas State -1.3 · mkt Texas State —
proj Washington State 22.8 · Texas State 24.1
Total
proj 46.9
Utah State @ Oregon StateUtah State 61%
Model
Utah State -4.0 · mkt Utah State —
proj Utah State 28.3 · Oregon State 24.3
Total
proj 52.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.