CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Washington State @ Washington7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktWashington -13.8 · mkt Washington ~-21.5
LeanWashington State +21.5
Best priceWashington State +21.5 -112best of 6
WinWashington 83%
Oregon State @ Houston4.5 pt gap
Model vs mktHouston -14.0 · mkt Houston ~-18.5
LeanOregon State +18.5
Best priceOregon State +18.5 -110best of 7
WinHouston 84%
Texas State @ Texas2.8 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -28.2 · mkt Texas ~-31.0
LeanTexas State +31.0
Best priceTexas State +31.5 -115best of 7
WinTexas 98%
Fresno State @ USC2.2 pt gap
Model vs mktUSC -20.8 · mkt USC ~-23.0
LeanFresno State +23.0
Best priceFresno State +23.5 -110best of 6
WinUSC 93%
Boise State @ Oregon0.7 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -23.8 · mkt Oregon ~-24.5
LeanBoise State +24.5
Best priceBoise State +24.5 -105best of 7
WinOregon 95%
Wyoming @ Colorado State0.5 pt gap
Model vs mktColorado State -3.3 · mkt Colorado State ~-3.8
LeanWyoming +3.8
Best priceWyoming +4 -115best of 7
WinColorado State 59%
Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 1 · 6 games
Washington State @ WashingtonWashington 83%
Model
Washington -13.8 · mkt Washington ~-21.5
proj Washington State 18.3 · Washington 32.1
leans Washington State +21.5
◆ Mid 0
Washington -21.5 -108DraftKings
Washington State +21.5 -112DraftKings
Oregon State @ HoustonHouston 84%
Model
Houston -14.0 · mkt Houston ~-18.5
proj Oregon State 20.4 · Houston 34.4
leans Oregon State +18.5
◆ Mid 0
Houston -18.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon State +18.5 -110DraftKings
Texas State @ TexasTexas 98%
Model
Texas -28.2 · mkt Texas ~-31.0
proj Texas State 13.5 · Texas 41.6
leans Texas State +31.0
◆ Mid 1
Texas -30.5 -110DraftKings
Texas State +31.5 -115FanDuel
Fresno State @ USCUSC 93%
Model
USC -20.8 · mkt USC ~-23.0
proj Fresno State 18.5 · USC 39.3
leans Fresno State +23.0
◆ Mid 1
USC -22.5 -106LowVig
Fresno State +23.5 -110DraftKings
Boise State @ OregonOregon 95%
Model
Oregon -23.8 · mkt Oregon ~-24.5
proj Boise State 14.4 · Oregon 38.1
leans Boise State +24.5
◆ Mid 0
Oregon -24.5 -115DraftKings
Boise State +24.5 -105DraftKings
Wyoming @ Colorado StateColorado State 59%
Model
Colorado State -3.3 · mkt Colorado State ~-3.8
proj Wyoming 24.5 · Colorado State 27.8
leans Wyoming +3.8
◆ Mid 0.5
Colorado State -3.5 -115FanDuel
Wyoming +4 -115DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.