CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 9 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
32.6
Market margin MAE
22.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Toledo @ Washington StateFinal 7–28
Model
pred Toledo 11.6 · actual Washington State 21
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.6 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.