CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 7 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
22.6
Market margin MAE
26.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ Ole MissFinal 21–24
Model
pred Ole Miss 23.6 · actual Ole Miss 3
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +33.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 30.0 · closer
Wake Forest @ Oregon StateFinal 39–14
Model
pred Wake Forest 0.3 · actual Wake Forest 25
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.