CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 6 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 6 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
4.2
Market margin MAE
2.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oregon State @ App StateFinal 23–27
Model
pred Oregon State 0.2 · actual App State 4
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.