CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 5 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
21.9
Market margin MAE
15.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ Colorado StateFinal 20–3
Model
pred Colorado State 9.9 · actual Washington State 17
winner Colorado State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ Oregon StateFinal 27–24
Model
pred Houston 19.9 · actual Houston 3
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.9 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.