CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 3 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
33.3
Market margin MAE
24.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oregon State @ Texas TechFinal 14–45
Model
pred Texas Tech 19.0 · actual Texas Tech 31
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ North TexasFinal 10–59
Model
pred Washington State 5.6 · actual North Texas 49
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 54.6 · mkt 42.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.