CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
2–0100%
Model margin MAE
10.6
Market margin MAE
15.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
San Diego State @ Washington StateFinal 13–36
Model
pred Washington State 8.4 · actual Washington State 23
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State -2.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 20.7 · closer
Fresno State @ Oregon StateFinal 36–27
Model
pred Fresno State 2.5 · actual Fresno State 9
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +1.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 10.3 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.