CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 13 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Week 13 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

1–0100%

ATS vs close

0–10%

Model margin MAE

12.0

Market margin MAE

11.5

→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Washington State @ James MadisonFinal 20–24

Model

pred James Madison 16.0 · actual James Madison 4

winner James Madison ✓

ATS vs close

leaned James Madison -15.5Miss ✗

margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.