CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 12 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
21.9
Market margin MAE
15.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oregon State @ TulsaFinal 14–31
Model
pred Tulsa 0.5 · actual Tulsa 17
winner Tulsa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ Washington StateFinal 3–28
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 2.2 · actual Washington State 25
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.2 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.