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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 11 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
10.6
Market margin MAE
25.0
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sam Houston @ Oregon StateFinal 21–17
Model
pred Oregon State 6.6 · actual Sam Houston 4
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 25.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.