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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 10 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
0.1
Market margin MAE
6.5
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ Oregon StateFinal 7–10
Model
pred Oregon State 3.1 · actual Oregon State 3
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.