CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 1 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–10%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
20.0
Market margin MAE
16.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
California @ Oregon StateFinal 34–15
Model
pred Oregon State 1.0 · actual California 19
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.