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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 9 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
18.3
Market margin MAE
19.0
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oregon State @ CaliforniaFinal 7–44
Model
pred California 4.4 · actual California 37
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.6 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ San Diego StateFinal 29–26
Model
pred Washington State 7.0 · actual Washington State 3
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 14.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.