CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 8 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
15.5
Market margin MAE
7.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Hawai'i @ Washington StateFinal 10–42
Model
pred Washington State 15.4 · actual Washington State 32
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
UNLV @ Oregon StateFinal 33–25
Model
pred Oregon State 6.4 · actual UNLV 8
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.