CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 7 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–20%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
18.1
Market margin MAE
6.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ Fresno StateFinal 25–17
Model
pred Fresno State 6.1 · actual Washington State 8
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ NevadaFinal 37–42
Model
pred Oregon State 17.0 · actual Nevada 5
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.