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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 5 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
20.2
Market margin MAE
14.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ Boise StateFinal 24–45
Model
pred Boise State 0.8 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.