CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 4 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–0100%
ATS vs close
2–0100%
Model margin MAE
2.2
Market margin MAE
13.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Purdue @ Oregon StateFinal 21–38
Model
pred Oregon State 13.6 · actual Oregon State 17
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 15.5 · closer
San José State @ Washington StateFinal 52–54
Model
pred Washington State 1.0 · actual Washington State 2
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 11.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.