CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 3 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
17.8
Market margin MAE
13.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Washington State @ WashingtonFinal 24–19
Model
pred Washington 3.6 · actual Washington State 5
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Oregon @ Oregon StateFinal 49–14
Model
pred Oregon 8.1 · actual Oregon 35
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.