CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
1–150%
Model margin MAE
16.3
Market margin MAE
19.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Texas Tech @ Washington StateFinal 16–37
Model
pred Texas Tech 6.3 · actual Washington State 21
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ San Diego StateFinal 21–0
Model
pred Oregon State 15.8 · actual Oregon State 21
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 15.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.