CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 14 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
2–0100%
Model margin MAE
9.0
Market margin MAE
10.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Wyoming @ Washington StateFinal 15–14
Model
pred Washington State 14.7 · actual Wyoming 1
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Oregon State @ Boise StateFinal 18–34
Model
pred Boise State 13.7 · actual Boise State 16
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.