CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 13 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market

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Week 13 backtest · Pac-12 · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened

Straight up

0–10%

ATS vs close

1–0100%

Model margin MAE

5.3

Market margin MAE

14.0

→ model's margins were closer than the market

Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up

Washington State @ Oregon StateFinal 38–41

Model

pred Washington State 2.3 · actual Oregon State 3

winner Washington State ✗

ATS vs close

leaned Oregon State +11.0Cover ✓

margin err: model 5.3 · mkt 14.0 · closer

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.