CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 12 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
0–20%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
23.5
Market margin MAE
22.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oregon State @ Air ForceFinal 0–28
Model
pred Oregon State 4.1 · actual Air Force 28
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.1 · mkt 30.5 · mkt closer
Washington State @ New MexicoFinal 35–38
Model
pred Washington State 11.8 · actual New Mexico 3
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.