CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · Pac-12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Pac-12 · 2 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–150%
ATS vs close
0–20%
Model margin MAE
9.1
Market margin MAE
7.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Utah State @ Washington StateFinal 28–49
Model
pred Washington State 18.0 · actual Washington State 21
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
San José State @ Oregon StateFinal 24–13
Model
pred Oregon State 4.1 · actual San José State 11
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.