CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 9 · 5 games
UTEP @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 95%
Model
North Dakota State -23.1 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj UTEP 16.5 · North Dakota State 39.6
Total
proj 56.2
Northern Illinois @ UNLVUNLV 91%
Model
UNLV -19.1 · mkt UNLV —
proj Northern Illinois 19.6 · UNLV 38.7
Total
proj 58.3
UConn @ Air ForceAir Force 57%
Model
Air Force -2.6 · mkt Air Force —
proj UConn 30.6 · Air Force 33.2
Total
proj 63.8
New Mexico @ San José StateNew Mexico 65%
Model
New Mexico -5.4 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 30.4 · San José State 25.0
Total
proj 55.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.