CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 8 · 4 games
North Dakota State @ New MexicoNew Mexico 79%
Model
New Mexico -11.6 · mkt New Mexico —
proj North Dakota State 22.2 · New Mexico 33.8
Total
proj 56.0
San José State @ NevadaNevada 58%
Model
Nevada -3.0 · mkt Nevada —
proj San José State 24.4 · Nevada 27.4
Total
proj 51.8
Air Force @ WyomingAir Force 59%
Model
Air Force -3.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 29.0 · Wyoming 25.9
Total
proj 54.9
Hawai'i @ Northern IllinoisHawai'i 68%
Model
Hawai'i -6.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 32.1 · Northern Illinois 25.4
Total
proj 57.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.