CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 7 · 5 games
Nevada @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 94%
Model
North Dakota State -21.8 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Nevada 17.5 · North Dakota State 39.3
Total
proj 56.9
Northern Illinois @ WyomingWyoming 68%
Model
Wyoming -6.8 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Northern Illinois 23.8 · Wyoming 30.6
Total
proj 54.4
New Mexico @ Hawai'iHawai'i 64%
Model
Hawai'i -5.3 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico 24.5 · Hawai'i 29.8
Total
proj 54.3
UNLV @ Air ForceAir Force 55%
Model
Air Force -2.0 · mkt Air Force —
proj UNLV 31.0 · Air Force 32.9
Total
proj 63.9
San José State @ UTEPSan José State 54%
Model
San José State -1.6 · mkt San José State —
proj San José State 26.7 · UTEP 25.1
Total
proj 51.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.