CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 6 · 5 games
Hawai'i @ Arizona StateArizona State 85%
Model
Arizona State -14.7 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Hawai'i 19.6 · Arizona State 34.3
Total
proj 53.9
North Dakota State @ UNLVUNLV 78%
Model
UNLV -11.0 · mkt UNLV —
proj North Dakota State 22.5 · UNLV 33.5
Total
proj 56.0
Wyoming @ San José StateSan José State 54%
Model
San José State -1.3 · mkt San José State —
proj Wyoming 26.9 · San José State 28.2
Total
proj 55.2
Air Force @ Northern IllinoisAir Force 71%
Model
Air Force -8.0 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 26.6 · Northern Illinois 18.6
Total
proj 45.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.