CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 5 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 5 · 5 games

Wyoming @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 94%

Model

North Dakota State -21.9 · mkt North Dakota State —

proj Wyoming 17.5 · North Dakota State 39.4

Total

proj 56.8

UTEP @ New MexicoNew Mexico 82%

Model

New Mexico -13.0 · mkt New Mexico —

proj UTEP 19.9 · New Mexico 32.9

Total

proj 52.8

San José State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 77%

Model

Hawai'i -10.7 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj San José State 24.1 · Hawai'i 34.8

Total

proj 59.0

California @ UNLVUNLV 64%

Model

UNLV -5.2 · mkt UNLV —

proj California 27.1 · UNLV 32.3

Total

proj 59.4

Navy @ Air ForceNavy 52%

Model

Navy -0.7 · mkt Navy —

proj Navy 32.5 · Air Force 31.7

Total

proj 64.2

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.