CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 4 · 6 games
Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateGeorgia State 52%
Model
Georgia State -0.6 · mkt Georgia State —
proj Northern Illinois 24.1 · Georgia State 24.7
Total
proj 48.8
Hawai'i @ WyomingHawai'i 59%
Model
Hawai'i -3.4 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 30.0 · Wyoming 26.6
Total
proj 56.6
Oregon State @ UTEPOregon State 64%
Model
Oregon State -5.1 · mkt Oregon State —
proj Oregon State 32.9 · UTEP 27.8
Total
proj 60.8
Air Force @ NevadaAir Force 67%
Model
Air Force -6.3 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 29.1 · Nevada 22.8
Total
proj 51.9
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateNew Mexico 76%
Model
New Mexico -10.2 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 32.9 · New Mexico State 22.7
Total
proj 55.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.