CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 3 · 7 games
UTEP @ MichiganMichigan 100%
Model
Michigan -38.9 · mkt Michigan —
proj UTEP 5.4 · Michigan 44.3
Total
proj 49.7
New Mexico @ OklahomaOklahoma 97%
Model
Oklahoma -26.3 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj New Mexico 14.0 · Oklahoma 40.3
Total
proj 54.3
Northern Illinois @ ArizonaArizona 95%
Model
Arizona -23.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Northern Illinois 14.4 · Arizona 38.2
Total
proj 52.6
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 71%
Model
Sacramento State -7.9 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · Sacramento State 30.3
Total
proj 52.6
Wyoming @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 64%
Model
Central Michigan -5.2 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Wyoming 25.6 · Central Michigan 30.8
Total
proj 56.3
Nevada @ Middle TennesseeNevada 54%
Model
Nevada -1.5 · mkt Nevada —
proj Nevada 27.4 · Middle Tennessee 25.9
Total
proj 53.3
Fresno State @ San José StateFresno State 67%
Model
Fresno State -6.1 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Fresno State 33.5 · San José State 27.4
Total
proj 60.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.