CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 2 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 2 · 3 games

North Dakota State @ Air ForceAir Force 77%

Model

Air Force -10.7 · mkt Air Force —

proj North Dakota State 22.0 · Air Force 32.7

Total

proj 54.6

New Mexico State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 75%

Model

Hawai'i -9.6 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj New Mexico State 22.4 · Hawai'i 32.0

Total

proj 54.4

UNLV @ North TexasNorth Texas 71%

Model

North Texas -7.7 · mkt North Texas —

proj UNLV 23.5 · North Texas 31.2

Total

proj 54.6

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.