CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 13 · 6 games

Sacramento State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 94%

Model

Hawai'i -22.0 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj Sacramento State 17.4 · Hawai'i 39.4

Total

proj 56.8

Nevada @ UNLVUNLV 88%

Model

UNLV -16.9 · mkt UNLV —

proj Nevada 20.2 · UNLV 37.1

Total

proj 57.3

Air Force @ New MexicoNew Mexico 79%

Model

New Mexico -11.4 · mkt New Mexico —

proj Air Force 22.3 · New Mexico 33.7

Total

proj 56.0

UTEP @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 72%

Model

Northern Illinois -8.5 · mkt Northern Illinois —

proj UTEP 22.4 · Northern Illinois 30.8

Total

proj 53.2

North Dakota State @ San José StateSan José State 71%

Model

San José State -7.9 · mkt San José State —

proj North Dakota State 22.3 · San José State 30.3

Total

proj 52.6

UConn @ WyomingUConn 74%

Model

UConn -9.3 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 31.9 · Wyoming 22.6

Total

proj 54.6

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.