CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 12 · 5 games
Northern Illinois @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 95%
Model
North Dakota State -22.8 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Northern Illinois 16.7 · North Dakota State 39.5
Total
proj 56.2
UTEP @ Air ForceAir Force 93%
Model
Air Force -21.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj UTEP 19.6 · Air Force 40.8
Total
proj 60.4
New Mexico @ WyomingNew Mexico 57%
Model
New Mexico -2.6 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 29.2 · Wyoming 26.6
Total
proj 55.9
Hawai'i @ NevadaHawai'i 71%
Model
Hawai'i -8.0 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 31.4 · Nevada 23.4
Total
proj 54.8
UNLV @ San José StateUNLV 83%
Model
UNLV -13.7 · mkt UNLV —
proj UNLV 36.2 · San José State 22.5
Total
proj 58.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.