CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 11 · 5 games
San José State @ Air ForceAir Force 91%
Model
Air Force -18.9 · mkt Air Force —
proj San José State 22.0 · Air Force 40.9
Total
proj 62.9
North Dakota State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 75%
Model
Hawai'i -9.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · Hawai'i 32.0
Total
proj 54.3
Nevada @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 55%
Model
Northern Illinois -1.8 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj Nevada 26.4 · Northern Illinois 28.1
Total
proj 54.5
Wyoming @ UTEPWyoming 58%
Model
Wyoming -2.7 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Wyoming 28.5 · UTEP 25.8
Total
proj 54.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.