CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 10 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 10 · 5 games

Wyoming @ UNLVUNLV 90%

Model

UNLV -18.0 · mkt UNLV —

proj Wyoming 19.1 · UNLV 37.1

Total

proj 56.3

Air Force @ ArmyArmy 81%

Model

Army -12.3 · mkt Army —

proj Air Force 21.0 · Army 33.4

Total

proj 54.4

Northern Illinois @ San José StateSan José State 55%

Model

San José State -1.6 · mkt San José State —

proj Northern Illinois 25.1 · San José State 26.8

Total

proj 51.9

New Mexico @ NevadaNew Mexico 59%

Model

New Mexico -3.1 · mkt New Mexico —

proj New Mexico 30.0 · Nevada 26.9

Total

proj 56.8

Hawai'i @ UTEPHawai'i 72%

Model

Hawai'i -8.2 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj Hawai'i 30.6 · UTEP 22.4

Total

proj 53.0

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.